James W. Watkins, III, J.D., CFP EmeritusTM, AWMA®
InvestSense, LLC
Abstract
Modern portfolio construction has historically emphasized maximizing expected returns for a given level of risk. Within defined contribution plans governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”), however, fiduciaries are not charged with maximizing returns in the abstract. Rather, they are obligated to act prudently and solely in the interests of plan participants and beneficiaries, with the exclusive purpose of providing retirement benefits. This distinction is significant. The ultimate objective of retirement investing is not to maximize periodic or benchmark-relative returns but to maximize participants’ sustainable retirement outcomes—that is, their terminal wealth.
This post argues that the concept of terminal wealth should become an explicit component of ERISA fiduciaries’ evaluation of in-plan annuitiews and alternative investments. Properly understood, terminal wealth encompasses not merely cumulative returns but also wealth preservation, capital preservation, mitigation of sequence-of-returns risk, and the reduction of catastrophic losses that permanently impair retirement security. Because ERISA’s fiduciary standards focus on participant welfare rather than asset-class orthodoxy, incorporating terminal wealth into investment analysis is not only permissible but is arguably required where evidence demonstrates that certain alternative investments improve expected retirement outcomes through superior risk-adjusted wealth preservation.
Introduction
ERISA fiduciaries occupy a unique legal position. Unlike ordinary investors, whose objectives may vary from speculation to wealth maximization, ERISA fiduciaries must pursue one objective: advancing the financial interests of plan participants and beneficiaries.
For decades, institutional investment practice has largely equated prudence with diversification under Modern Portfolio Theory (“MPT”), emphasizing expected returns, volatility, and correlation. Although these remain valuable analytical tools, they are only proxies for the ultimate objective of retirement investing.
Participants do not retire on Sharpe ratios. They retire on accumulated wealth.
Consequently, the relevant fiduciary inquiry is not whether an investment outperforms an index in any particular year, but whether including that investment increases the probability that participants achieve greater sustainable retirement wealth at retirement while reducing the likelihood of catastrophic loss. The concept of terminal wealth provides precisely this framework.
Alternative investments—including private credit, infrastructure, private real estate, certain hedge fund strategies, and other diversifying assets—have increasingly demonstrated their capacity to improve long-term portfolio efficiency by reducing downside risk, dampening volatility, and mitigating severe drawdowns. These characteristics directly affect participants’ terminal wealth because retirement savings are path dependent. A substantial loss late in an accumulation period may permanently impair retirement readiness even if long-run average returns remain unchanged.
Accordingly, this post contends that fiduciaries should evaluate alternative investments and in-plan annuities not solely through traditional measures of expected return, but through their expected contribution to participants’ terminal wealth.
I. ERISA’s Fiduciary Standard Focuses on Participant Outcomes Rather Than Asset-Class Preferences
Section 404(a)(1) of ERISA establishes four foundational fiduciary obligations:
- the duty of loyalty;
- the duty of prudence;
- the duty to diversify; and
- adherence to governing plan documents insofar as they are consistent with ERISA.
Most significant here are the duties of prudence and loyalty.
The duty of loyalty requires fiduciaries to act “solely in the interest” of participants and beneficiaries and for the exclusive purpose of providing benefits. This obligation directs fiduciaries toward participant welfare rather than institutional convention or industry custom.
Similarly, prudence requires fiduciaries to employ the care, skill, prudence, and diligence that a prudent expert would exercise under similar circumstances.
Importantly, ERISA evaluates fiduciary conduct through utilization of a prudent process rather than investment outcomes. Courts consistently recognize that fiduciaries are not guarantors of investment performance. Rather, they must undertake a reasoned, informed, and appropriately documented decision-making process.
Nothing within ERISA requires fiduciaries to prefer public equities over private markets, passive investments over active management, or traditional asset classes over alternatives.
The statute is deliberately investment-neutral. Consequently, the legal question is not whether alternatives or in-plan annuities are unconventional but whether their inclusion reflects a prudent process reasonably designed to improve participant outcomes.
II. Terminal Wealth Better Reflects ERISA’s Objectives Than Periodic Return Maximization
Terminal wealth measures the value of an investor’s portfolio at the conclusion of the investment horizon. Unlike annualized returns, terminal wealth captures the cumulative effects of:
- compound returns;
- volatility;
- downside losses;
- sequence-of-returns risk;
- capital preservation; and
- reinvestment over time.
For retirement investors, terminal wealth represents the actual economic objective.
Two portfolios may exhibit identical average annual returns while producing materially different retirement balances because of differences in volatility and drawdowns.
For example, a 40 percent decline requires a subsequent gain of approximately 67 percent merely to recover principal. During this recovery period, participants lose valuable years of compounding.
Thus, capital preservation is not simply a conservative investment preference. It is mathematically linked to maximizing long-term wealth.
Alternative investments that reduce severe drawdowns may therefore produce higher terminal wealth even if their expected arithmetic returns equal—or are modestly lower than—those of traditional public equities.
III. Wealth Preservation Is Consistent with ERISA’s Duty of Prudence
Prudence requires fiduciaries to evaluate foreseeable risks.
Risk under ERISA is not synonymous with volatility. Rather, the Supreme Court has emphasized that fiduciaries must evaluate investments in light of the portfolio as a whole and the purposes of the plan.
Within retirement investing, one of the most significant risks is permanent impairment of retirement capital. This distinction is critical.
Temporary volatility that does not impair long-term wealth may be tolerable. Permanent capital loss is not.
Alternative investments frequently seek to reduce:
- equity market beta;
- correlation with traditional markets;
- downside capture;
- inflation risk;
- liquidity mismatches over long investment horizons; and
- concentration risk.
Each of these characteristics may contribute to preserving retirement assets through adverse market environments.
A prudent fiduciary therefore may conclude that lower downside risk justifies allocating a portion of plan assets to alternatives despite reduced liquidity or increased complexity, provided those characteristics are appropriately evaluated.
IV. Capital Preservation Advances the Duty of Loyalty
The duty of loyalty demands more than impartial investment selection. It requires that every fiduciary decision be made exclusively for participants’ benefit. Participants’ interests are measured by retirement security, not benchmark-relative performance.
Suppose two diversified portfolios possess identical expected returns. Portfolio A experiences materially smaller drawdowns and higher expected terminal wealth. Portfolio B produces larger interim gains during bull markets but significantly greater losses during bear markets.
If the evidence demonstrates that Portfolio A more reliably delivers retirement benefits, loyalty favors Portfolio A.
The fiduciary’s obligation is not to maximize excitement, innovation, or even annual returns. It is to maximize participants’ retirement welfare. Terminal wealth operationalizes this principle.
V. Alternative Investments May Improve Terminal Wealth Through Risk Management
The empirical literature increasingly demonstrates that carefully selected alternative investments may improve diversified portfolios by reducing overall risk while maintaining competitive expected returns.
Examples include:
- private infrastructure generating relatively stable inflation-linked cash flows;
- private credit providing contractual income with lower correlation to public equity markets;
- diversified real estate offering inflation protection and income generation;
- market-neutral hedge fund strategies designed to reduce downside exposure; and
- certain absolute-return strategies emphasizing capital preservation.
Not every alternative investment satisfies fiduciary standards. Some exhibit excessive fees, leverage, opacity, or valuation uncertainty.
ERISA does not require fiduciaries to adopt alternatives indiscriminately. Rather, it requires disciplined evaluation.
The appropriate inquiry asks whether the investment’s expected contribution to participant retirement outcomes outweighs its costs and risks.
Terminal wealth provides a framework for answering precisely that question.
VI. Sequence-of-Returns Risk Demonstrates Why Terminal Wealth Matters
Traditional mean-variance optimization often understates sequence-of-returns risk. Because retirement investing relies upon continuous contributions and compounding, losses occurring immediately before retirement disproportionately reduce lifetime retirement income.
Alternative investments that reduce large drawdowns may therefore increase retirement security despite modestly reducing upside capture. This asymmetry reinforces the importance of capital preservation. Protecting participants from severe losses shortly before retirement directly advances ERISA’s purpose of delivering retirement benefits.
VII. Fiduciary Process Should Explicitly Consider Terminal Wealth
A prudent fiduciary evaluating alternative investments should incorporate analyses beyond expected return.
Relevant considerations include:
- expected terminal wealth across multiple market scenarios;
- stress testing under adverse economic environments;
- maximum historical and simulated drawdowns;
- probability of retirement shortfall;
- sequence-of-returns sensitivity;
- inflation-adjusted retirement income projections;
- diversification benefits;
- liquidity appropriate to participant demographics;
- fee reasonableness relative to expected participant benefit; and
stress testing under adverse economic environments: and
10. stress testing under adverse economic environments.
These factors align more closely with ERISA’s participant-centered objectives than reliance upon historical benchmark-relative returns alone.
VIII. Potential Objections
The principal objection is that alternatives introduce greater complexity, valuation uncertainty, and fees. These concerns are legitimate.
However, ERISA does not prohibit complexity. It requires informed evaluation. Complex investments may be prudent where their risks are understood, monitored, and outweighed by expected participant benefits.
Likewise, higher fees do not violate ERISA per se. The Supreme Court has recognized that fiduciaries may prudently select higher-cost investments when those investments provide commensurate value.
Thus, the relevant inquiry is whether higher costs reasonably enhance participants’ expected retirement outcomes, including improved terminal wealth through reduced downside risk.
IX. Implications for Defined Contribution Plans
Historically, defined benefit plans adopted alternative investments more readily because professional fiduciaries controlled asset allocation. Defined contribution plans increasingly resemble defined benefit plans in investment sophistication through target-date funds, collective investment trusts, and professionally managed default investments.
As participant investment horizons often span thirty to forty years, many alternative investments possess liquidity profiles compatible with retirement investing.
Consequently, fiduciaries should not categorically exclude alternatives based solely upon historical practice. Rather, they should determine whether such investments improve expected participant retirement outcomes measured by terminal wealth.
X. Terminal Wealth and Procedural Prudence Process
ERISA is fundamentally concerned with outcomes that matter to participants: secure retirement benefits achieved through prudent, loyal, and well-informed fiduciary decision-making. The statute does not prescribe particular asset classes or investment philosophies. Instead, it requires fiduciaries to employ a prudent process focused on participants’ best interests.
Terminal wealth provides a more faithful expression of that objective than conventional measures emphasizing annualized returns or benchmark-relative performance alone. By integrating capital preservation, wealth preservation, downside-risk mitigation, sequence-of-returns risk, and long-term compounding into a unified framework, terminal wealth aligns investment analysis with the statutory purpose of delivering retirement security.
Accordingly, plan fiduciaries should expressly evaluate whether alternative investments enhance participants’ expected terminal wealth on a net-of-fees basis and within the context of the portfolio as a whole. Such an approach is fully consistent with ERISA’s duties of prudence and loyalty. Indeed, where credible evidence demonstrates that carefully selected alternative investments are reasonably expected to improve long-term retirement outcomes by preserving capital, reducing catastrophic losses, and increasing sustainable retirement wealth, a fiduciary’s failure to consider those investments may itself be difficult to reconcile with ERISA’s participant-centered mandate.
The evolution of fiduciary practice should therefore move beyond a narrow emphasis on expected returns and embrace terminal wealth as a central analytical metric. Doing so does not redefine fiduciary duty; it more accurately fulfills it by aligning investment decision-making with the retirement security ERISA was enacted to protect.
With regard to in-plan annuities, ERISA fiduciary law does not presume that annuities are imprudent. Terminal wealth provides a more complete fiduciary metric for comparing annuities with non-annuitizing income-producing alternatives. In other words, fiduciaries should evaluate the economic tradeoffs of irrevocable annuitization—including the surrender of capital—against strategies that may generate comparable retirement income while preserving assets. That argument is consistent with ERISA’s process-based standard and avoids overstating what the law requires..
XI. Terminal Wealth as a Superior Fiduciary Framework for Evaluating Lifetime Income Products
The growing emphasis on guaranteed lifetime income within defined contribution plans presents an important test of ERISA’s fiduciary standards. Congress, through the SECURE Act of 2019 and the SECURE 2.0 Act, has sought to facilitate participant access to lifetime income products by reducing perceived legal barriers to the selection of insurers and by encouraging retirement income disclosures. These legislative developments, however, should not be understood as establishing a fiduciary preference for annuities or other forms of mandatory annuitization They do not!
Rather, they preserve the fiduciary’s obligation under ERISA § 404(a) to engage in a prudent, participant-centered evaluation of whether a particular retirement income strategy is reasonably expected to advance participants’ financial interests. Terminal wealth provides an analytical framework for conducting precisely that evaluation.
Traditional analyses of annuity products frequently emphasize the certainty of periodic income while treating the conversion of accumulated retirement savings into an irrevocable income stream as an acceptable or unavoidable feature of retirement planning. From the perspective of retirement security, however, this approach evaluates only one side of the participant’s economic position. It measures the income produced by the contract but does not fully account for the economic consequences of permanently relinquishing ownership of the underlying retirement assets.The distinction is economically significant.
Under a conventional immediate or deferred life annuity, the participant exchanges accumulated retirement assets for a contractual promise of future income. Upon annuitization, ownership and control of the investment principal generally passes to the insurer, and the participant’s estate ordinarily has no claim to the remaining capital unless the contract includes specific death-benefit, refund, period-certain, or similar guarantees. Those contractual protections are frequently purchased through optional riders or alternative payout structures that generally reduce the amount of lifetime income payable or increase the overall cost of the contract.
From a terminal wealth perspective, these features represent a measurable economic cost rather than merely a contractual characteristic. The participant receives mortality insurance and longevity protection in exchange for surrendering liquidity, flexibility, investment control, and, in many cases, the opportunity for any residual capital to remain available for future contingencies or intergenerational transfer. ERISA’s fiduciary framework requires that these economic tradeoffs be evaluated rather than assumed away.
The duty of prudence requires fiduciaries to consider all material characteristics of competing investment alternatives. The duty of loyalty requires that those characteristics be assessed exclusively from the perspective of participant welfare. Accordingly, when evaluating lifetime income products, fiduciaries should consider not only the stability of the income stream but also the effect of annuitization on participants’ expected terminal wealth.
This broader analysis may reveal meaningful differences between competing retirement income strategies. Consider two hypothetical retirement solutions.
The first converts $1,000,000 into an immediate lifetime annuity producing a guaranteed monthly payment. The participant relinquishes ownership of the investment principal upon annuitization. If the participant dies relatively early, the remaining capital generally remains with the insurer absent contractual guarantees that typically reduce the initial payout or require additional cost. The participant receives valuable longevity insurance, but at the expense of permanently surrendering control of accumulated retirement wealth.
The second strategy allocates the same assets among diversified investments—including, where appropriate, alternative investments designed to generate durable income, moderate volatility, and preserve capital. The participant withdraws income under a disciplined distribution policy while retaining ownership of the underlying portfolio. Assuming prudent investment performance, the participant continues to possess residual capital throughout retirement, retains flexibility to adjust withdrawals as circumstances change, and may leave remaining assets to beneficiaries.
Neither strategy is inherently superior in every circumstance. A participant with limited assets, impaired health, exceptional longevity risk, or no desire to preserve assets for heirs may rationally prefer guaranteed lifetime income notwithstanding the surrender of principal. Conversely, a participant with sufficient retirement assets, a preference for liquidity, or a desire to preserve financial flexibility may derive greater overall economic benefit from a strategy that seeks both sustainable income and continued ownership of investment capital.
Terminal wealth allows fiduciaries to evaluate these alternatives using a common economic metric. Rather than focusing exclusively on nominal income payments, terminal wealth measures the participant’s aggregate economic position throughout retirement by incorporating income received, remaining portfolio value, the probability of asset depletion, the effects of inflation, liquidity, mortality assumptions, and the expected value of any residual assets. This approach recognizes that retirement security is multidimensional. Income certainty is unquestionably valuable, but so too are financial flexibility, capital preservation, and the ability to respond to unforeseen expenses such as long-term care, family support obligations, or unexpected medical costs.
Moreover, terminal wealth highlights an important economic feature of irrevocable annuitization that may otherwise receive insufficient attention in fiduciary analysis. In many annuity structures, participants who die significantly earlier than actuarially anticipated subsidize payments to longer-lived annuitants through the pooling of mortality risk. This mortality-credit mechanism is the fundamental source of longevity insurance and is not, in itself, evidence of fiduciary imprudence. Nevertheless, from the standpoint of the individual participant, the expected economic value of relinquished capital is a material consideration that should be weighed alongside the benefits of guaranteed income
However, mortality credits are based on an unknown, the annuity owner’s continued survival, and therefore mortality credits are speculative and should never be included in an analysis of in-plan annuities. Fiduciaries acting prudently should understand and evaluate the speculative nature of mortality credits rather than focusing exclusively on projected income streams.
Importantly, this analysis does not argue that lifetime annuities are imprudent or inconsistent with ERISA. Rather, it argues that ERISA’s duties of prudence and loyalty require fiduciaries to compare annuities with reasonably available alternatives using evaluation metrics that fully capture participant welfare. If a non-annuitizing strategy can reasonably be expected to deliver comparable retirement income while preserving meaningful capital, maintaining liquidity, and providing greater financial flexibility at comparable risk and cost, those characteristics constitute material economic benefits that belong within the fiduciary’s decision-making process.
Viewed in this manner, terminal wealth does not diminish the value of guaranteed lifetime income. Instead, it broadens fiduciary analysis beyond income alone to encompass the participant’s total economic welfare. Because ERISA requires fiduciaries to act solely in participants’ interests and for the exclusive purpose of providing retirement benefits, a framework that simultaneously measures retirement income, capital preservation, liquidity, flexibility, and residual wealth more faithfully reflects the statute’s participant-centered objectives than one that evaluates retirement products principally by the magnitude of their periodic income payments.
terminal wealth expands—not rejects—the analytical framework by explicitly incorporating the economic value of retained capital, liquidity, flexibility, and residual estate value into the fiduciary prudence equation.
XII Fiduciary Decision-Making Under Uncertainty:
Fiduciaryprudence requires fiduciaries to distinguish between contractual guarantees and probabilistic expectations. A fiduciary should not equate an uncertain, participant-specific realization of mortality credits with guaranteed economic value, particularly where that comparison may obscure material tradeoffs, including the irrevocable surrender of investment principal, loss of liquidity, diminished financial flexibility, and the potential forfeiture of residual assets.
That argument is consistent with ERISA’s emphasis on informed and balanced decision-making.
Terminal wealth evaluates economic outcomes that are either realized or reasonably measurable:
- income received;
- remaining account value;
- preserved capital;
- liquidity;
- purchasing power;
- residual estate value.
By contrast, the incremental value attributable to mortality credits for any individual participant is contingent on an uncertain lifespan. It cannot be known when the fiduciary makes the investment decision.
Because fiduciaries are required to evaluate investments using material facts reasonably available at the time of the decision, greater analytical weight should be afforded to objectively measurable economic attributes—such as capital preservation, expected cash flows, liquidity, fees, and residual asset values—than to participant-specific gains that depend on unknowable future longevity. Terminal wealth naturally emphasizes these measurable attributes and therefore provides a more reliable framework for comparing retirement income strategies and avoiding unnecessary fiduciary liability.
XIII Guaranteed Contractual Benefits vs. Contingent Actuarial Benefits
Plan sponsors and other investment fiduciaries must be able to differentiate between “guaranteed contractual benefits” from “contingent actuarial benefits.” Fiduciaries should categorize retirement product attributes as follows:
- Guaranteed contractual benefits (e.g., stated income payments while alive, contractual death benefits, guaranteed withdrawal benefits, explicit guarantees).
- Measurable economic costs (e.g., fees, loss of liquidity, surrender of principal, tax effects, opportunity costs).
- Contingent actuarial benefits (e.g., mortality credits that may or may not be realized by a particular participant, depending on longevity). F
Investment fiduciaries must be able to understand and recognize all three categories, but to avoid assigning the same evidentiary weight to contingent actuarial benefits as to guaranteed contractual rights or objectively measurable economic costs. That formulation is likely to be more persuasive than asserting that mortality credits should be disregarded altogether, because it acknowledges their role while arguing they should receive appropriately limited weight in a participant-centered fiduciary analysis.
One thing we stress to our fiduciary risk mitigation clients with regard to fiduciary prudence: the question is rarely whether an investment later performed well or poorly; the question is whether the decision-making process leading to the recommendation satisfied the applicable standard when the decision was made.
As a former securities compliance director, I often reference the following analogy: A stockbroker is generally not liable merely because a recommended security performs poorly.. Markets fluctuate. Investment risk is inherent. The relevant inquiry under suitability principles—and now under Regulation Best Interest—is whether the recommendation was reasonable when made based on the investor’s circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, and the information reasonably available at the time.
The analogy to ERISA is compelling:
- The product is not automatically the problem.
- The outcome is not automatically evidence of breach.
- The process surrounding the recommendation is the critical inquiry. .
XV. Going Forward: Fiduciary Prudence and the Primacy Of the Decision-Making Process
The regulatory framework governing investment recommendations outside the ERISA context provides a useful analogy for understanding fiduciary prudence. Under both historical suitability standards and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Regulation Best Interest framework, liability generally does not arise merely because a recommended investment subsequently underperforms. Investment outcomes alone do not establish misconduct. . Conversely, a fiduciary process may be deficient even if the selected investment performs well, if the fiduciary failed to consider material factors that should have informed the decision. Rather, the central inquiry is whether the recommendation was appropriate when made based upon the investor’s circumstances, objectives, and the information reasonably available at the time.
The same principle applies to ERISA fiduciary analysis. A fiduciary is not required to predict future investment performance or guarantee successful outcomes. ERISA does not impose liability merely because a selected investment later fails to achieve expectations. Instead, the inquiry focuses on whether the fiduciary employed a prudent process that considered material information and reasonably evaluated the investment’s role in advancing participant interests.
Accordingly, the critical question is not whether a particular investment product ultimately succeeds or fails. The question is whether the fiduciary possessed and considered sufficient information to make an informed decision consistent with the duties of loyalty and prudence. Based on my work with ERISA plaintiff attorneys, I believe we are going to see an increase claims focusing on whether a fiduciary’s decision-making process factored in terminal wealth. If nothing else, terminal wealth creates a material issue of fact, which should preclude dismissal of the action,
This distinction is particularly important in evaluating retirement income strategies and alternative investments. An annuity is not imprudent merely because it involves surrender of investment principal, just as an alternative investment is not imprudent merely because it involves complexity or reduced liquidity. The fiduciary obligation is to understand and evaluate the relevant economic tradeoffs before selecting the investment or strategy.
Terminal wealth analysis contributes to this process by providing fiduciaries with additional information concerning the participant’s likely economic position over time. It enables fiduciaries to evaluate not only income production or investment returns, but also capital preservation, liquidity, residual wealth, sequence risk, fees, and other factors affecting the participant’s ultimate retirement outcome.
The value of terminal wealth analysis, therefore, is not that it predicts outcomes with certainty. Its value is that it improves the quality of the fiduciary decision-making process by ensuring that material economic considerations are identified, evaluated, and weighed before the fiduciary acts.
I think there is also an important doctrinal parallel with ERISA litigation itself.
Courts frequently distinguish between:
- a bad outcome resulting from a prudent process, and
- a favorable outcome resulting from an imprudent process.
That is why the Supreme Court in cases such as Fiduciary Management Associates, Tibble, and Hughes focused heavily on the process: what information was considered, what alternatives were evaluated, what monitoring occurred, and whether fiduciaries acted consistently with their obligations.
The law does not demand clairvoyance. It demands disciplined decision-making based on adequate information.
The fiduciary is not required to know whether a participant will live long enough to realize mortality credits, whether markets will outperform expectations, or whether a particular alternative investment will exceed a benchmark. The fiduciary is required to understand the relevant tradeoffs, evaluate them objectively, and make decisions based on the best available information.
Terminal wealth is valuable not because it guarantees better outcomes, but because it helps create a better fiduciary process before outcomes are known.
Prudent plan sponsors will focus on the practical fiduciary takeaways from this post::
- You are not required to predict the future.
- You are required to make informed decisions using the right information.
- Returns and income are important, but they are not the entire retirement outcome.
- The question is whether the fiduciary process considers the participant’s complete financial picture.
Going Forward: Fiduciary Prudence Is About the Quality of the Decision-Making Process—Not Predicting the Future
Plan sponsors are not expected to predict markets, forecast interest rates, or know in advance which investment strategy will produce the highest return. ERISA does not require perfection. It requires a prudent process.
That distinction is vitally important and cannot be overemphasized..
In fiduciary decision-making, the critical question is not simply whether an investment ultimately performs well or poorly. The question is whether the fiduciary had and considered the information necessary to make an informed decision when the decision was made. Plan sponsors and other investment fiduciaries who do not factor in terminal wealth leave themselves vulnerable in ERISA litigation
Too often, retirement investment discussions focus primarily on two measurements:
• How much did the investment return?
• How much income did it produce?
Both are important. Neither tells the entire story.
Participants do not retire on returns alone. They retire on the wealth they have accumulated, preserved, and converted into retirement security.
That is why plan fiduciaries should consider the concept of terminal wealth—the participant’s overall economic position over the retirement horizon.
Terminal wealth analysis considers factors that directly affect retirement outcomes, including:
• preservation of capital;
• sequence-of-returns risk;
• liquidity and flexibility;
• fees and expenses;
• inflation impact;
• sustainable income;
• residual asset value; and
• the long-term consequences of investment decisions.
This does not mean that one investment product or strategy is always better than another. An annuity, an alternative investment, or a traditional portfolio may each serve an important role depending on participant needs and circumstances.
The fiduciary obligation is not to choose a particular product. The obligation is to understand the tradeoffs. A prudent fiduciary process asks:
“Have we considered all material information necessary to evaluate how this decision affects participants’ long-term financial security?”
Terminal wealth is not a replacement for traditional investment analysis. It is an additional lens that helps fiduciaries evaluate whether a strategy advances the ultimate objective of a retirement plan: helping participants achieve financial security.
Better information leads to better decisions. Better decisions are the foundation of fiduciary prudence.
For a LinkedIn audience of plan sponsors, I would probably use this as the lead post in a series rather than a single standalone piece. The natural follow-up posts would be:
- “Why investment returns alone do not measure retirement success.”
- “The fiduciary difference between income generation and wealth preservation.”
- “Evaluating annuities: guaranteed income versus preserved capital.”
- “Terminal wealth and the future of fiduciary decision-making.”
In closing, I will once again stress the key theme in this post: fiduciary prudence is not about choosing the winning product; it is about creating a process capable of producing the best-informed decision for participants. Prudent investment fiduciaries recognize that fiduciary prudence and fiduciary liability are all about the quality of the fiduciary’s decisions.
The question is not whether a plan’s investment committee selected the “right” investment after the fact. The question is whether the committee had the right information before making the decision.
Fiduciaries cannot control outcomes or eliminate uncertainty, but they can control the quality of the process used to reach decisions affecting participants’ retirement security.
During a recent webcast with Kate McBride and Nevin Adams, one thing we all agreed on is that it is not a case that ,fiduciaries lack concern for participants. We agreed that plan sponsors need, and want, more and better educational opportunities. A recurring problem is that many fiduciary reviews naturally gravitate toward familiar measurements—performance, fees, benchmarks, and income—while potentially overlooking broader measures of retirement success.
Terminal wealth becomes valuable because it asks the question that participants ultimately care about:
“After all the investment decisions, distributions, fees, market cycles, and retirement years have passed, what financial position did this strategy actually create?”
That is a powerful fiduciary question, one that should always remind plan sponsors of their primary fiduciary duty –
Promoting the best interests of plan participants.
That is the common thread connecting ERISA’s duty of loyalty, the duty of prudence, participant disclosures, and terminal wealth analysis. The metric is secondary. The mission is primary.
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This article is for informational purposes only and is neither designed nor intended to provide legal, investment, or other professional advice since such advice always requires consideration of individual circumstances. If legal, investment, or other professional assistance is needed, the services of an attorney or other qulified professional advisor should be sought.

















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